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The latest poll is way below all other projections
By Evan Symon
(CALIFORNIA GLOBE) – For the last several months, polls have shown that Congressman Adam Schiff (D-CA) has a commanding lead over former baseball star Steve Garvey (R). The first poll in March, right after the primary, had Schiff up 61% to 37%. The June poll barely changed, going 62% to 37%. The latest poll earlier this month had Schiff moving up to 64% to 33%. Considering that the 2022 Senate election had Senator Alex Padilla (D-CA) beating Mark Meuser (R) 61% to 39% and former Senator Dianne Feinstein defeating Republican Elizabeth Emken in 2012 62% to 38%, the projections seem…off.
So what is going on? First, there’s always that pesky margin of error. Meuser had similar numbers in polling at the same time then shot back up as the election neared. Second, is the polling itself. All three of the polls for the General election for the Senate have been through the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC), which tends to lean left.
Election experts have noted that PPIC polls always have several more points towards Democratic candidates, and prior elections have shown them to be off base. How off have they been? Well, with only a few weeks before the Primary this year, they were projecting that Congresswoman Katie Porter (D-CA) would defeat Garvey for the second slot in the race. They were the only ones doing that by that point, and only a few weeks later, Garvey beat Porter for the second slot by 1.2 million votes 31.5% to 15.3%. Garvey was even with a few thousand of beating Schiff, whom the PPIC had pegged for a landslide victory. So, they aren’t exactly reliable.
And looking out more broadly, there are signs that it is a lot closer than people think. First, Schiff, instead of kicking back and letting ads do the work like most candidates with an easy win ahead do, is out on the campaign trail like he is facing off against a fellow Democrat. Second, straw polls have been showing a different story. KTLA’s viewer poll last week, which should be noted is not scientific and is simply based on viewer votes rather than more planned voter cross-section, has Garvey actually ahead. It’s not the type of poll that can be used officially, but as an unofficial gauge, there is a definite pull for Garvey out there.
