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(OPINION) – President Ronald Reagan once said, “The trouble with our Liberal friends is not that they’re ignorant; it’s just that they know so much that isn’t so.” This statement has never applied more aptly than it does to California’s current Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom.
Not a week goes by where Newsom is not boasting about how effective his policies were in addressing the COVID-19 crisis. He loves to compare California’s response to that of Republican run states, claiming that he had greater success fighting the virus, while protecting his constituents. His favorite target appears to be the state of Florida, which is run by likely 2024 presidential opponent, Ron DeSantis. There is one small problem with his grandstanding, though. It is all based on lies.
A new study from the Paragon Health Institute sheds light on an important question: which approach to managing the pandemic was more effective, an open approach or a more restrictive approach? The results of the study are clear: Florida’s more open approach to the pandemic yielded approximately identical health outcomes as California’s more draconian measures, while causing far fewer societal, educational and economic disruptions.
The study explains:
“Florida relaxed lockdowns after a short time, resulting in a low Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Index score, whereas California imposed strict and prolonged lockdowns and had one of the highest index scores in the nation. Yet the two states had roughly equal health outcomes scores, suggesting little, if any, health benefit from California’s severe approach. But California suffered far worse economic and education outcomes. And both states had substantial increases in their pre-existing domestic migration patterns. California’s severe lockdowns seemed to elicit a jump in its already high out-migration, while Florida experienced a significant in-migration increase during the pandemic as compared with pre-pandemic trends. Florida’s commitment to keeping schools open was likely a significant factor in attracting people from around the country.”
Key areas of failure include:
Education:
It is estimated that due to school shutdowns, the average student and state will suffer a 5.6 percent and 1.9 percent lower GDP, respectively, each year for the remainder of the 21st century due to learning losses as documented by declining math and reading test scores. Data from the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) suggests that virtual or combined instruction resulted in a decrease in physical activity and mental or emotional health among students, particularly in districts with larger populations of black students. However, public health policymakers in states like California failed to consider these massive costs to children’s education when implementing school lockdowns. And these failures further exacerbated the achievement gap for black and Latino students.
Among California fourth graders, in 2022 “Black students had an average [reading] score that was 37 points lower than that for white students,” and “Hispanic students had an average score that was 29 points lower” than white students’ reading scores. In California, only 7 percent of black students and 11 percent of Hispanic students scored at or above the National Assessment of Educational Progress’ (NAEP) ‘proficient’ level for eighth grade math in 2022.
Economy:
The economic effects of draconian lockdown policies were far-reaching and drastic. According to one study, the economic costs of business shutdowns in the United States alone were estimated to be around $7 trillion annually. This economic burden was disproportionately shouldered by people of color.
In February 2020, there were 1 million black-owned businesses in operation around the United States, according to a University of California at Santa Cruz report.
About six weeks later, after the onset of government mandated COVID related shutdowns, the number of active black owned businesses had dropped by 442,000, a 59% reduction. Many of them had to shut down their businesses for good. Most of them were in highly restrictive states like California.
During the same time, only 17% of White proprietors had to shut down their businesses, UC Santa Cruz research shows.
Social Emotional Health:
Pandemic lockdowns also gave rise to a host of social issues, such as feelings of loneliness and disconnection, which had a detrimental impact on mental and physical health, particularly among the elderly.
The study goes on to point out that California and Florida had roughly the same health outcomes:
“Florida and California have roughly equal age- and disease-adjusted health outcomes scores, suggesting there was no substantial health benefit from California’s severe lockdowns.”
The findings of this study not only illustrate the importance of considering both health and economic outcomes when deciding how to manage a pandemic, but also the significance of allowing citizens to make their own decisions about how to respond to it. As Dr. Zinberg points out:
“People need to feel they have the freedom to make their own decisions. It’s clear that, when given the opportunity, people chose to move to Florida. It shouldn’t be surprising that the same thing happened during the pandemic. People wanted to be able to make their own decisions, and they chose to go to a place where they had more freedom to do so.”
The findings of the Paragon Health Institute study demonstrate the importance of balancing health and economic concerns when responding to a pandemic. It’s clear that Florida’s more open approach to the pandemic resulted in far fewer societal, economic and educational disruptions than California’s more restrictive approach, while yielding approximately identical health outcomes.
As Thomas Sowell, a senior fellow at Stanford’s Hoover Institution said, “It is hard to think of any other issue on which so many people are so wrong so much of the time.” In California, Gavin Newsom was chief among those who were clearly wrong in this case. But somehow, it is doubtful his pride will ever allow him to admit it.
Craig DeLuz is Director of Communications for CRA, President of 2A News Corp. and a director for the Frederick Douglass Foundation of California. You can follow him on Twitter @CraigDeLuz.
